The wait is finally over for Fantasy Football fans, here’s our NFL Week 1 DFS preview!
Before we get stuck into the preview, here is a quick reminder for you of how Moneyball NFL contests are scored.
Betting lines and totals
We’ve touched on this in recent weeks – using betting lines to create winning DFS lineups
See below for lines and totals ahead of Week 1.
Ok, so we can conclude that the three games projected to be the highest scoring are Oakland v New Orleans, Detroit v Indianapolis and Pittsburgh v Washington. So instantly we are thinking of quarterbacks on these teams and for GPP purposes potentially that WR/QB combo. Guys like Big Ben and Antonio Brown, Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks, Matt Stafford and Golden Tate and Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton.
The three games projected to be the lowest scoring are Minnesota v Tennessee (heavy run offenses), Cincinnati v New York Jets and Cleveland v Philadelphia. We’ll take a look at the defences of all these teams and from an offensive point of view running backs might be the way to go.
Best value plays
Defense – Tennessee Titans – $4,100 with Moneyball
The Titans are one of the cheapest defences on Moneyball and will allow you to spend your cash elsewhere. They also look to be a sneaky good pick. Their running game should be well improved this year helping to keep their defence off the field and Minnesota will be vulnerable in the passing game with Bridgewater injured and a new QB under centre (likely Sam Bradford). In a projected low scoring game and a game in which we think the Titans can win, their D looks a terrific low ownership GPP option.
Wide Receiver – Golden Tate – Detroit – $6,900 with Moneyball
Tate looks to be a great value GPP play against a very average Colts secondary in a dome, in a projected high-scoring game. Tate has been left to fill the huge void left by Calvin Johnson and is clearly Matthew Staffords main deep threat. Speaking of Stafford, consider stacking them together for a low-ownership combo in GPP’s.
Tight End – Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis – $5,500 with Moneyball
Andrew Luck is back calling the shots for the Colts after an extended stint on the sidelines and a season to forget. However, not much has changed for the Colts. They look like they’ll score lots of points and concede lots of points. TE Dwayne Allen looks set to benefit and have a breakout year. Coby Fleener fled to New Orleans and he is now the number one Colts TE. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski historically leans on tight ends a lot and we are expecting pretty low ownership as well. He looks a nice option for both GPP and cash games.
Running Back – Ryan Matthews – Philadelphia – $6,100 with Moneyball
The Eagles traded away Sam Bradford and it’s really hard to see them making the playoffs this season. They do start with a pretty easy assignment against the Browns though that is winnable and they’ll no doubt lean heavily on the running game with a young QB starting. That suits Ryan Matthews who is a risky season long fantasy proposition due to his injury history but represents great one week value here against a Browns defence who struggled mightily to contain the run last year.
Quarterback – Eli Manning – New York Giants – $7,200 with Moneyball
Eli faces an already banged up and distressed Dallas defence that has plenty of holes in it. Entering the third year of running McAdoo’s offense in which he has thrived. This year shapes up to be his best yet. He has two young tight-ends, rookie Sterling Shepard who at $5,600 is a nice GPP option and of course Odell Beckham Jnr who is one of the best receivers in the game. Eli could go big in this game and is considerably cheaper than most of his elite QB counterparts. That’s because almost all of his points will come in the air. He’s worth the risk though, especially in GPP when put behind OBJ or Shephard.