As the 2016/17 NFL DFS season draws near we decided to chat with some industry professionals about some winning strategies they have employed over the years.
Without doubt, one of the most popular answers put forward was the QB/WR stack when playing guaranteed prize-pool contests (GPP’s).
GPP’s normally have big prizes and A LOT of competitors meaning you are essentially shooting for the perfect score, high risk, high reward in many cases.
Cash games, 50-50 or multipliers are a little different with the payout structure so you can play a more traditional consistent line-up and still end up in the green.
However, for the purpose of today’s exercise lets focus in on NFL GPP’s and the strategy of QB/Receiver stacking.
How it works in theory
As we mentioned earlier, we are shooting for the best possible score and therefore need to be searching for absolute best case scenarios with players and teams.
When you go searching for correlations between positions and teams there is no greater link than the performance of a quarterback in terms of passing yards and the performance of receivers in terms of amount of yards caught.
These two metrics are of course the basis of scoring for the Quarterback, Tight-End and Wide Receiver positions in NFL DFS.
If Eli Manning has a big game and throws for 400+ yards and four touchdowns it would be reasonable to expect that his number one receiver Odell Beckham Jr also has a big game. Likely catching for 100+ yards and at least one of Eli’s touchdown throws.
So, identify the number one and two targets for all of the quarterbacks in the league based off yards, targets per game and touchdowns.
Each week try and identify a weak defense or a team with a poor secondary and stack the quarterback playing that team with their key receiving targets!
Let’s look at some examples from the 2015/16 NFL season.
Drew Brees and Eli Manning go MASSIVE in Week 8.
Drees went for 511 yards thrown and seven touchdowns as New Orleans prevailed in a shootout against The Giants in the Big Easy. His two main receivers Brandon Cooks and Marcus Colston combined for 202 yards and three touchdowns.
Eli Manning threw six touchdowns putting up 350 total passing yards. Odell Beckham Jr. is clearly Eli’s most lethal target and sure enough, Odell scored three touchdowns among his 130 yards pleasing fantasy owners no end.
Red Rifle FIRES for Cinci in Week 3
Andy Dalton’s best statistical game last season for the Bengals was in Week 3 against division rival Ravens. No guesses for who had a massive game at receiver… Mr AJ Green went off for 227 yards and two TDs!
Mariota beats Bortles in a young QB classic
Young Jags quarterback Blake Bortles’ best game last season came in Week 13 against the division rival Titans. His number one target and talented young receiver is Allen Robinson from Penn State. Robinson had 153 receiving yards and ran in three TD’s!
Ok, you get the point, in a GPP where you need your quarterback to have a big game go all-in and identify the receiver most likely to correlate with that big game on his team. You won’t regret it!