The pointy end of the AFL season has come around making for some really tricky DFS weeks.
Tonight the Bulldogs host the Magpies at Etihad Stadium and it’s the Bulldogs who will go into the game as warm favourites with CrownBet at $1.38 or 72.46% win probability.
The Bulldogs last week showed the fight they’ve shown all season with a gritty win over the Kangaroos whereas the Magpies were awful against the Tigers on Friday Night.
Using betting odds to create winning DFS lineups
Tonight we are going to take a pretty hard stance against the Magpies and stack our lineups with lots of Bulldogs players.
They are a better team on all of our key metrics, they’ve beaten Collingwood on the last three occasions and we see them getting the job done again comfortably tonight.
The teams
The Bulldogs still lead the AFL in disposals averaging 415.9 per game, Collingwood rank eighth with 375.9 per game.
Check how the two teams will lineup below. It’s important to note that Magpies skipper and absolute star Scott Pendlebury was under a slight injury cloud this week, enough for us to fade him in most contests tonight.
Best value DFS plays
Fletcher Roberts – Defender – Western Bulldogs
Bargain basement $3,500 option that will allow us to load up on some premium midfielders. Roberts has never had more than 13 disposals in an AFL game despite playing 13 career games already but he should be able to get enough value for us at the position. He’s listed at Full-Back and might get the job on someone like Jesse White, anything over 60 fantasy points and we’d be happy. He’s one of few bargain basement players on the board tonight and we are happy to side with him.
Luke Dalhaus – Midfielder – Western Bulldogs
One of our best plays of the night is young Luke Dalhaus. He looks slightly undervalued still in terms of fantasy prices due to the layoff he had through injury. His two return games have been very solid however and we expect him to continue his hot form again tonight. With a few key injuries to Bulldogs midfielders he will be relied upon to go head-to-head with the likes of Treloar, Pendlebury and Adams.
Sample Moneyball line-up
