AFL Preliminary Final week is the weekend for the true fans before the corporates invade Grand Final day. Cats v Swans and Giants v Dogs, let’s do this!
Odds
Pinnacle Sports odds for the game above.
Geelong is favoured to beat Sydney with an implied win probability of 62.1%
The points total in that game is set at 172.5
Greater Western Sydney is favoured to beat the Western Bulldogs with an implied probability of 72.46%
The points total in that game is set at 167.5
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Bargain Picks
RUCK – Sam Naismith – Sydney Swans – $4,600 (Moneyball)
The ruck position is a tricky one this weekend with no standout value plays. So we are going to keep it simple and pick the Swans ruckman Naismith who is the cheapest ruck on the board. Not expecting anything huge from him but there is just so much value elsewhere. We need to save cash and in terms of points per price Naismith projects better than any other ruck.
FORWARD – Gary Rohan – Sydney Swans – $5,400
Our number one smoky pick for AFL DFS this week is the ultra talented Rohan who is named to play despite being injured in the clash with the Crows last week. Geelong lack leg speed down back. Mackie, Enright, Taylor, Lonergan are all terrific premiership players but none of them have the wheels to go with Rohan. If the Swans are to cause an upset it’ll be because their speedy forwards make the smarter, older Geelong defenders be accountable and hit the scoreboard early. We love Rohan as a low owned option in GPP’s.
Premium Plays
FORWARD – Lance Franklin – Sydney Swans – $8,500
Buddy was relatively quiet against the Cats earlier in the year but there is no doubting his hunger to perform in September for the Swans. He’ll relish playing the Cats on the MCG, the extra space will allow him to really test out the likes of Tom Lonergan and drag him up the ground and open space over the back where he and Rohan can turn their defenders around. We are sniffing a Swans upset and happy to pay up for the premium forward on the ground.
MIDFIELDER – Stephen Coniglio – GWS – $8,600
The Giants should be too good for the Dogs on their home deck so we have to play their most premium midfielder who had a stellar season. Lucky for us, he’s had two below par games in his last three so we get a mini discount on his price. Coniglio has scored over 100 on a whopping 17 occasions in 2016. Something similar on Saturday will give our lineup a great anchor!
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Sample Lineup
