Although there are no games this coming weekend the AFL Finals games for week 1 have been set for the following week.
We’ve decided to preview each of the four games from a fantasy/betting point of view and help provide a sound statistical base as you start to get all of your lineups in for the big weekend.
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 8
West Coast v Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium (8.10pm)
- 6th v 7th on the 2016 ladder. Eagles have won their last four games, the Bulldogs three of last four.
- West Coast’s attack is more potent than the Dogs, they’ve scored 2181 points in 2016 compared to just 1857 for the Bulldogs.
- Eagles key forward Josh Kennedy leads the AFL in goals this year (80 goals), he averages almost 10 Moneyball points per game more than all of the other forwards in this game, he’s also scored over 100 points 10 times in 2016
- The Eagles will be without ruckman Nic Naitanui opening the door for Jonathan Giles who is priced at jut $4,300 and is coming off a Moneyball score of 97 against the Crows last weekend.
- Eagles midfielder Luke Shuey is in super form, he hasn’t scored below 95 fantasy points in a match since the 11th of June!
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 9
Geelong v Hawthorn at MCG (7.50PM)
- 2nd v 3rd on the ladder and a big rivalry game. These two are right up there with the most successful clubs of the last decade.
- The Cats finished the season with a wet sail whereas the Hawks have been very inconsistent.
- Both teams have strong attacks and scored 2235 and 2134 points in 2016 respectively. The Cats however only conceded 1554 points compared to the 1800 points the Hawks conceded.
- This game is the closest in terms of betting odds and the probability of either team winning.
- Cats midfielder Patrick Dangerfield ranks 2nd in the AFL for disposals in 2016 with 688. He’s averaging 120.2 fantasy points per game on Moneyball and is the highest priced player at $10,200.
- Hawks forward Luke Bruest although consistent has only scored over 100 points on Moneyball three times in 22 games this season. He has kicked 48 goals this year.
- The highest priced defender is Cats veteran Corey Enright ($8,500) who’s experienced in big games and has scored over 100 points in five of his last seven games.
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 10
Sydney v GWS at ANZ Stadium (3.20PM)
- 1st v 4th and a rivalry on the up as the Giants posted their best regular season in club history. The Swans are number one on our power rankings and had the highest percentage in the entire AFL with 151.2% this season.
- The Swans are loaded with premium mids: Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Tom Mitchell all average over 105 Moneyball points per game and are all priced above $8,800.
- The Giants have the three highest scoring defenders in Shaw, Williams and Haynes. Heath Shaw is the only defensive player to average 100 points per game or more in 2016.
- The Giants also have the two premium ruck options in Mumford and Lobb, Swans forward Kurt Tippett ($6,900) pinch hits in the ruck for the Swans.
- Speaking of Tippet, he has now played two games since returning from injury in which he has scored well below his regular average. He looks underpriced and should have high ownership in Moneyball contests.
Adelaide v North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval (7.40PM)
- 5th v 8th on the 2016 ladder. The Crows should have finished in the Top 4 and the Kangaroos were lucky to sneak into the finals. It is no surprise that the Crows are heavy favourites at home to win the game (84.75% win probibility according to the betting odds).
- The Crows scored more points than any other team in the AFL this year with 2483, the Kangaroos just scored 1956. The Crows percentage (138.3%) is also considerably higher than the Roos (105.2%).
- The Crows triple threat forward line of Lynch, Betts and Walker are all priced above $7,000 on Moneyball and all averaged at least 80 fantasy points per game this season.
- Outgoing Roos veteran Brent Harvey is in scintillating form heading into the clash with scored above 110 against the Swans and Giants in recent weeks.
- Crows running defender Rory Laird is by far the ‘premium’ player for his position. He averages over 100 points per game, no other listed defender averages more than 81. In fact, the Roos have just two listed defensive players who have averaged more than 70 fantasy points in 2016.
- Roos skipper Andrew Swallow is the midfielder in the best Moneyball ‘form’ at 111 points per game, he is priced ($7,500) lower than the likes of Sloane, Thompson, Ziebell, Dal Santo and the Crouch brothers.
Good luck if you’re playing in the AFL Finals DFS contests, we’ll be back closer to the first bounce with out tips and hints for the big weekend of games!