That one day in September has turned into the first Saturday of October but that’s about the only negative we can find leading up to the 2016 AFL Grand Final.
So without further ado, check out our 2016 AFL Grand Final DFS Primer!
The Sydney Swans will play the Western Bulldogs in what shapes as a cracking contest of conflicting styles and stories.
The Swans will play in their fifth Grand Final since 2005, a remarkable effort for a club that continues to set the standard.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, will break a Grand Final appearance drought that dates back to 1961!
These two teams met in Round 15 this year with the Bulldogs prevailed in a classic over the Swans.
Western Bulldogs 13.5 (83) d Sydney Swans 11.13 (79) at the SCG with Jason Johannisen booting the match-winning goal late in the game.
On that day Buddy Franklin kicked five goals while Bulldogs stars Matthew Boyd and Marcus Bontempelli dominated.
The two teams rank #1 and #2 for possessions in 2016 with the Bulldogs the only team in the competition averaging more than 400 possessions per game.
The Swans rank #1 for contested ball and the Bulldogs #4. This battle should go a long way to shaping the result.
The Bulldogs must hold their own here and extract the ball outside to their runners.
The odds and the conditions
The Swans will go in as favourites with an implied winning probability of 62.89% using Pinnacle Sports odds.
The Swans were also the best defensive team in the AFL this year in terms of points conceded and the line for the game points total is set at 166.5 currently.
The bad news is the weather forecast doesn’t look ideal for free-flowing, high scoring attractive football.
Melbourne will definitely get some rain leading up to the Saturday bounce time and the only saving grace is that it’s predicted to clear up by Saturday afternoon.
Hopefully the M.C.G. drains well and conditions aren’t too rain affected.
Pay-up for these premiums
Forward – Lance Franklin – Sydney – $8,500
Pay up for Buddy Love who looks set to tear up the big stage. He kicked five against the Bulldogs earlier in the year (134 Moneyball points also) playing on injured Dogs young gun Marcus Adams and they now don’t really have a logical matchup for him. If they don’t want to use young Joel Hamling on him it’s likely veteran Dale Morris will get the job. Franklin will be licking his lips and we can smell a massive performance.
Midfield – Jack Macrae – Western Bulldogs – $8,700
The Bulldogs have only played three games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground all season long. Their best fantasy player across that sample size? Jack Macrae! He scored 126, 139 and 106 in his three games here giving the impression he likes the space the MCG offers. Given his only average recent form we are expecting low-ownership and he’s a great GPP option. Another Bulldog who has thrived at the MCG to consider is Josh Dunkley who scored 116 Moneyball points in both of his appearances at the Ground.
Midfield – Dan Hanneberry – Sydney – $9,400
Loves the big stage and arrives here gunning for his ninth straight Moneyball score of 100 or greater. Win, lose or draw it’s hard to see a player of Hanneberry’s calibre particularly with the engine he possesses playing a bad game. He’s the closest thing to a LOCK we’ve got this weekend!
Best of the rest daily fantasy plays
Defender – Eastern Wood – Western Bulldogs – $5,800 (Moneyball)
The Captain was terrific last week taking some great marks and proving a steady force throughout. What makes him an attractive play this week is that he’ll likely spend some time as the loose man or third tall around Franklin and Tippett giving him a great chance to accumulate marks and cheap disposals. At $5,800 he’s a nice cheap play down back.
Midfield – Clay Smith – Western Bulldogs – $6,500
Smith is listed as a midfielder on Moneyball and is a potential contrarian pick because there are so many quality midfield options on the board. We do not recommend 100% exposure on him but he is the Bulldogs most dangerous and in-form forward and at just $6,500 if you’re tipping a Bulldogs upset he is almost a must play!
Our tip for the game
The key for the Bulldogs outside of keeping Buddy Franklin under wraps will be matching the Swans when it comes to contested football.
Hanneberry, Parker, Kennedy and Jack are some of the very best in the clinches. Can the young core go toe-to-toe on the big stage with that interior and finish on top?
For the Swans, they’ll need their young running outside players like Rohan and Heeney to mix it with the smaller Bulldogs who will no doubt play a bold brand of Football.
It’s sure to be a ripping contest.
Our tip: Sydney by 11 points
Norm Smith: Dan Hanneberry
We hope you enjoyed our 2016 AFL Grand Final DFS Primer, if you’ve got any must-plays or potential fades, be sure to let us know via Twitter or Facebook!