We are now twelve weeks into the NFL season and have decided to catch up with our favourite DFS pro The Oddsmaker, Sean Koerner.
Sean Koerner is the Director of Predictive Analytics for STATS. The #1 ranked FantasyPros NFL expert 2013-15 combined. As well as being a 4-time Fantasy Sports Trade Association winner most accurate MLB & NFL player projections.
Most importantly, he’s a friend of Fantasy Stars and we were very lucky to get the chance to chat with him again.
Fantasy Stars: Sean, thanks for taking the time to chat with us once again mate.
Sean Koerner: No worries, I’m just glad I got asked back!
FS: Let’ start with some housekeeping, what do you make of the big news in the DFS space, the FanDuel and DraftKings merger?
SK: I really don’t enough of the details to have a strong opinion one way or another.
My initial thoughts are that it isn’t ideal for the users. It may help the industry long term if they don’t have to battle legal fees and pay state operation fees separately.
I’m just a little worried that the rake will go higher but I would hope that the smaller sites can force them to keep it competitive.
I personally like spreading my entries across many sites to take advantage of different prices, lineup constraints, users, etc. so having two become one isn’t something I’d generally like to see in that regard.
How has the 2016/17 NFL season gone for The Oddsmaker, Sean Koerner?
FS: We have 12 weeks in the books mate, how has this NFL DFS season gone for you so far?
SK: So far so good. I feel like I may have been a bit more ahead this time last year but that’s due to my lack of HUGE nights in tournaments. Still winning at around a 70% clip or so in cash games across the five sites I play on so I can’t complain.
FS: What have you learned personally along the way this season and how have you adapted?
SK: Sort of in-line from what I had just mentioned on my strengths being cash games and my weakness being GPPs.
I have just owned being a cash game player. Everyone loves the chance to win six figures in one contest but I just don’t have the time or skill-set to really be as successful in doing that. It’s likely because of my “chalky” teams most weeks but I also realize just how volatile NFL can be each and every week.
FS: Ok, what about some of your success stories. Let’s talk your biggest and best weeks of the year so far and why?
SK: I believe it was Week 4. When Julio Jones had that 300-yard game. I had some exposure to Matt Ryan/Julio Jones stacks that went off and I nearly took down a few GPPs.
It’s also important to note that was the week I started to focus my multi-entering GPPs on the Thursday to Monday slate.
I feel like those set up the best for me considering I not only have time to mess around building a ton of lineups (I’m insanely busy Sunday mornings and games kick off early for me on PST) but it’s also easier to get great plays at significantly lower ownership levels.
FS: Alright what about some hard luck stories. Worst loss of the year, what week and why?
SK: It was Week 8 when Ty Montgomery was ruled out after lock. I had 100% exposure to him on Thursday to Monday and Sunday main slates. That was when they discovered he had sickle cell trait that was giving him complications on an injury he suffered back in Week 7.
The worst part of the whole thing actually was that was when he was locked into his RB/WR hybrid role getting 10 receptions a game not to mention Randal Cobb was ruled out making me like him for the game even more.
Add on top of that he was somehow ONLY 5-10 percent owned on most sites (which was just baffling to me) considering how great of a play he was on my projections.
There was n0 information out of him even having a chance to miss the game until after lock as well. Disaster!
FS: Is there a player that you’ve consistently found yourself playing week in week out?
SK: I seem to have Le’Veon Bell each and every week.
He has one of the best high floor/ceiling combinations currently in the league. He’s also basically matchup proof with the insane amount of targets he gets each week.
When he came back after the suspension he was a bit unlucky with touchdown production so his ownership levels dropped way too low. I kept with him and the TDs started coming – now he seems to be on everyone’s team week in, week out.
FS: The one biggest piece of advice for NFL DFS players that you can give is….
SK: I am a huge advocate for bankroll management. You have to make sure you are being consistent with this during the good and even the bad times. It’s important to know your strengths as well.
If you spend a ton of time researching and like to put a lot of money out there – join mostly cash games. If you are ever low on time and want to throw a quick team out there – throw it into a tournament.
You would be surprised how well some of the teams I put very little thought into have done. It almost naturally allows you to be just the right amount of contrarian without realizing it. In a pinch, a little bit of booze can help this effect as well!
FS: Alright Sean, any advice for the closing stages of the season?
SK: Don’t force yourself into putting more entry fees out then you are used to just because you are trying to end with a big bang.
One thing that can help convince you to do so is to remember that in DFS you ideally want to have your HUGE winnings nights at the beginning of the year instead of at the end of the season.
American players have to remember that Uncle Sam gets a percentage of your winnings as they are at the end of December every year. You don’t really want your bankroll to peak on that day!
FS: Thanks for the chat, Sean. Look forward to dissecting the NBA DFS landscape with you in early January
SK: Sounds good, all the best with the rest of the NFL season
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Enjoy the rest of the NFL daily fantasy season you Fantasy Stars!